SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, MARCH 14
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (21-11, 28-5 ATS) vs. (4) Duke (28-5, 18-12-2 ATS)
The Blue Devils shoot for a conference-record 18th ACC Tournament championship when they battle upstart Georgia Tech at Greensboro Coliseum.
The Yelllow Jackets, who entered the tournament as the No. 7 seed, have forged their way to their first title-game appearance since losing to Duke in 2005 by scoring a trio of narrow victories. The beat North Carolina (62-58 as four-point favorite on Thursday), 19th-ranked Maryland (69-64 as a four-point underdog on Saturday) and North Carolina State (57-54 as a four-point chalk on Sunday). In yesterday’s victory over the Wolfpack, Georgia Tech squandered all of a 10-point halftime lead and had to rally from a late three-point deficit to get the win.
The run to the title game has been a bit of a surprise for the Yellow Jackets, who finished the regular season on a 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS slide in ACC play. That slump began with an ugly 86-67 loss at Duke as a 13-point underdog on Feb. 4.
As the top seed in this event, Duke earned a first-round bye, then took a tougher-than-expected route to the title game. On Friday, the Blue Devils couldn’t put away lowly Virginia until the final five minutes, eventually prevailing 57-46 but never coming close to covering as a 17-point favorite. That was followed by Saturday’s 77-74 come-from-behind victory over Miami, Fla., this time falling short as an 11½-point chalk. It marked the first time since ACC play tipped off – and just the second time all season – that the Blue Devils failed to cover in back-to-back games.
Since falling 71-67 at Georgia Tech as a seven-point road favorite on Jan. 9, Duke has gone 15-2 versus conference rivals (9-7-2 ATS). Although the teams split their season series this year, the Blue Devils are still 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings, and they’ve cashed in three of the last four dating back to an 82-70 romp as an 11-point favorite in a 2008 ACC tournament semifinal game.
The Blue Devils have won eight of the last 11 tournament championships. They’re also 16-1 SU all-time as a No. 1 seed in this event.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in seven of its last nine Sunday affairs, but is otherwise on ATS upticks of 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-1 as an underdog at neutral sites, 9-4 as a ‘dog regardless of venue and 4-0 when catching 7 to 12½ points. Meanwhile, Duke is on a 6-0-1 ATS run on Sunday.
The underdog is 9-0-1 ATS in this tournament, with six outright upsets.
The Yellow Jackets carry “under” trends of 4-1 at neutral sites (3-0 in this tournament), 16-7-1 on Sunday and 10-1 versus winning teams. The Blue Devils also are on “under” sprees of 8-3 overall (all as a favorite), 29-12 in ACC games, 7-1 versus winning teams, 15-7 on Sunday and 15-6 at neutral sites (all as a favorite). Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in 10 of their last 11 meetings, and the under is 7-3 in this year’s ACC tournament.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Richmond (25-7, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. (17) Temple (28-5, 22-11 ATS)
The two hottest teams in the Atlantic 10 hook up in the tournament championship game at Boardwalk Hall, where the Spiders will try to punch their first Big Dance ticket since 2004 and keep top-seeded Temple from winning its third straight A-10 title.
Richmond continued its late-season trend of playing close games Saturday, needing overtime to get past No. 2 seed Xavier 89-85 as a three-point underdog and qualify for the title game for just the second time (first time since 2002). The Spiders have won four in a row and 12 of their last 13 games (10-2-1 ATS), but three of their last five contests have gone into overtime (Richmond went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS), and its last six games have been decided by a total of 24 points.
The Owls, who gave up a league-low 56.8 ppg during regular-season conference action, have been even more suffocating in this tournament. On Friday, they limited St. Bonaventure to 35.8 percent shooting in a 69-51 rout as a 10-point favorite, then they blitzed Rhode Island 57-44 as a 3½-point chalk yesterday, holding the Rams to 27.1 percent from the floor. Temple has won nine in a row (8-1 ATS) since suffering a 71-54 loss at Richmond on Feb. 6.
While this is just the Spiders’ second appearance in the league title game, Temple is gunning for a record eighth championship. The Owls, who are the first No. 1 seed to make it to the A-10 finals since 2005, are trying to become the first team to rip off three straight championships since UMass won five in a row in the mid-1990s.
The Owls have dropped just two A-10 contests all year, including the ugly 17-point road loss to Richmond as a 1½-point road underdog on Feb. 6. In that game, the Spiders outshot Temple 57.8 percent to 32.1 percent and forced 13 turnovers. The teams have split the last 10 meetings, but Richmond has taken the cash in the last three following a 3-0 ATS run by the Owls. Finally, the favorite has covered in five of the last seven series tussles.
It’s been nothing but positive results at the betting window for the Spiders, who are on ATS hot streaks of 9-2 overall, 9-2-1 in conference play, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 37-13-1 as an underdog and 22-7 as a pup of less than seven points. Likewise, Temple is on ATS surges of 57-28-1 overall (8-1 last nine), 40-17 as a favorite, 8-0 when laying points at neutral sites, 21-7 as a chalk of less than seven points, 40-14-1 versus Atlantic 10 rivals, 10-1 on Sunday and 39-17-1 when facing opponents that have a winning record.
Richmond is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 on Sunday. From there, though, the Spiders sport “under” trends of 9-4 at neutral sites, 7-2 as an underdog, 6-1 when catching less than seven points and 4-1 as a neutral-site pup. It’s been all “unders” for Temple, too, including 5-1 overall (all in conference, all as a favorite), 5-0 at neutral sites, 5-1 as a favorite at neutral sites and 4-1 on Sunday.
Conversely, the “over” has cashed in each of the last two meetings and three of the last four in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Mississippi State (23-10, 15-12-1 ATS) vs. (2) Kentucky (31-2, 17-14 ATS)
The top two seeds clash for the SEC tournament title and automatic Big Dance bid at Bridgestone Arena, with Mississippi State looking to repeat as champions and the Wildcats seeking a record 26th league crown – and first since 2005.
The Bulldogs flexed their defensive muscle in Saturday’s 62-52 upset victory over Vanderbilt as a 1½-point road underdog, limiting the high-scoring Commodores 34.6 percent shooting. Forward Jarvis Varnado was a one-man wrecking crew with 11 points, a team-high nine rebounds and a game-high six blocked shots. Mississippi State, which opened the SEC tournament with a 75-69 quarterfinal win over Florida as a 1½-point favorite, has won five of seven and seven of 10, all in conference.
Kentucky needed a big second half to rally past Alabama 73-67 in Friday’s quarterfinal matchup – falling just short as a 9½-point chalk – but it had no such trouble with No. 15 Tennessee on Saturday, rolling 74-45 and easily covering as a 4½-point favorite. The second-ranked Wildcats outshot Tennessee 52.1 percent to 30.9 percent and had a commanding 40-26 rebounding edge. It was the second time this year that John Calipari’s squad avenged a loss with a double-digit rout.
Mississippi State was one of only a few teams to give the Wildcats a tough time this year, taking them to overtime on Feb. 16 but eventually falling 81-75 as a 2½-point home underdog. That snapped the Bulldogs’ three-game winning streak in this rivalry, which included an 84-82 overtime victory as a 2½-point underdog in the 2007 conference tournament. The ‘dog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
The Bulldogs sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-0 at neutral sites, 10-4 as an underdog, 12-3-1 as a ‘dog of 7 to 10½ points, 5-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 on Sunday, 4-1 against winning teams and 13-5-1 after a spread-cover. Kentucky has cashed in four of five on Sunday, but is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 after a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory of more than 20 points.
Mississippi State has topped the total in five of six on Sunday, but is otherwise on “under” runs of 8-1-1 at neutral venues, 7-3-1 as a ‘dog and 6-0-1 as a neutral-site pup. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for the Wildcats, including 5-2 overall (all in conference), 7-1 at neutral sites, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 when laying points at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE and UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Minnesota (21-12, 17-15 ATS) vs. (5) Ohio State (26-7, 16-17 ATS)
Having already knocked off two of the three Big Ten teams that shared the regular-season title, the Golden Gophers now go for the trifecta when they meet Evan Turner and Ohio State in the championship game at Conseco Fieldhouse.
One day after dispatching No. 11 Michigan State 72-67 as a four-point underdog in the quarterfinals, Minnesota completely tore apart sixth-ranked Purdue on Saturday, rolling 69-42 as a 2½-point pup to reach the Big Ten title game for the first time in history. The Gophers raced out to a 26-4 lead and never looked back in winning their fourth in a row SU and ATS. Going back to Feb. 18, Tubby Smith’s squad has won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) to likely assure itself of a Big Dance berth. In those nine games, Minnesota has been a beast defensively, giving up 60 points or fewer seven times.
For the second time in as many days, the Buckeyes needed late-game heroics from Turner to survive and advance to their first tournament championship game since winning it all in 2007. In a quarterfinal matchup against rival Michigan on Friday, Turner hit a buzzer-beating 35-footer to turn a two-point deficit into a 69-68 win. Then on Saturday against Illinois, Turner made field goals to force a first and second overtime session, with Ohio State eventually winning 88-81 in double-OT.
On the downside, Thad Matta’s team failed to cover in both victories (as a nine-point chalk against Michigan and a 7½-point favorite versus Illinois). Still, the Buckeyes have won 15 of 17 overall (9-8 ATS) – including the last six in a row (3-3 ATS) – going 15-1 SU in Big Ten contests during this stretch.
The home team held serve in this rivalry in the regular season, with Minnesota prevailing 73-62 as a four-point favorite on Jan. 9 and the Buckeyes rolling 85-63 as a seven-point chalk 22 days later. However, Turner (injury) didn’t play in the first meeting, but he had 19 points and eight assists in the rematch in Columbus. The teams have split their last six meetings SU and ATS (the host won and covered all six), and the favorite is 8-0 SU and ATS in the last eight.
Aside from an 8-23 ATS slump on Sunday, the Gophers are on positive pointspread surges of 4-0 overall (all in conference), 5-0 versus winning teams, 5-1 after a victory, 8-1 after a win of more than 20 points, 5-1 as an underdog and 5-1 as a pup of less than six points. Ohio State has cashed in seven of 10 against winning teams, but is now just 1-4 ATS in its last five at neutral venues.
The under is 4-1 in the last five in this series; Minnesota is on “under” runs of 4-1 against winning teams, 19-8 as a ‘dog and 14-5 as a neutral-site pup; and the Buckeyes have stayed low in 19 of 27 on Sunday, 12 of 17 after a non-cover and four straight when laying less than seven points. However, the over is 4-1 in the Gophers’ last five overall, 4-0 in their last four on Sunday and 9-1 in Ohio State’s last 10 when laying points on a neutral court.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Boston (41-23, 25-37-2 ATS) at Cleveland (51-15, 32-33-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers, sporting the league’s best record, take on the Celtics in a meeting of two of the Eastern Conference’s top teams at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland has won eight of its last nine SU, despite LeBron James sitting out two contests (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) to rest his body and a sore ankle. James returned Friday night with 23 points and 10 assists in a 100-95 victory at Philadelphia, but the Cavs failed to cover as a 7½-point road chalk, taking their fourth straight ATS setback. Cleveland is 28-4 at home where it is averaging 103.7 ppg on solid 50.5 percent shooting at home, while allowing 94.2 ppg on 43.6 percent shooting. However, the Cavs are a dismal 13-19 ATS at Quicken Loans Arena.
Boston ended a two-game hiccup (1-0-1 ATS) by hammering Indiana 122-103 Thursday night as a nine-point home favorite. The Celtics are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven outings, and they’ve actually played much better on the road (22-11 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) than at home (19-12 SU, 8-22-1 ATS). For the season, the Celtics are averaging 97.6 ppg on the highway (47.6 percent shooting) and surrendering 93 ppg (43.9 percent).
These teams opened the season against each other in Ohio, and the Celtics stole a 95-89 victory as a five-point road underdog, ending a 9-0 SU run by the home team in this rivalry. However, the Cavaliers returned the favor two weeks ago in Boston, rolling 108-88 as a 2½-point pup. The Cavs are 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 clashes, and despite coming up short at home in the season-opener, they’re 5-1 ATS in the last six Cleveland meetings. Also, the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run.
Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, the Cavaliers are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 at home and 2-5 against winning teams, but the still carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, 10-4 on Sunday and 17-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The Celts, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six roadies and 4-1-1 in their last six in the Eastern Conference, but are otherwise on ATS purges of 8-17-2 overall, 0-3-1 on Sunday, 0-3-1 against winning teams, 3-12-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 3-10-2 after a day off and 4-11 after a spread-cover.
Cleveland is on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 after a non-cover and 42-15-2 on Sunday, though the over is 7-1 in its last eight against Atlantic Division foes. Boston is on a bundle of “under” rolls, including 7-2 on the road, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 in the East, 12-5 on Sunday and 29-14 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five in Cleveland, the lone exception coming back in the Oct. 27 season debut.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
Utah (42-23, 40-22-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (40-24, 38-26 ATS)
Two of the league’s best spread-covering units collide when the Jazz head to the Ford Center to take on the Thunder.
Utah was on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll before losing to Milwaukee 95-87 Friday night as a one-point road pup. Over the past five games, including three on the road, the Jazz have averaged 111.4 ppg, well above their season average of 103.1 ppg, while allowing an even 100 ppg, just a bucket more than their season average of 97.8 ppg. Going back to Jan. 6, Jerry Sloan’s squad is 23-7 SU and 21-6-3 ATS, including 11-5 on the road (12-3-1 ATS).
Oklahoma City has won four in a row and seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), including a 5-0 SU run (3-2 ATS) on its home floor. On Tuesday, the Thunder beat New Orleans 98-93 laying 7½ points at home, and they followed that by squeaking past lowly New Jersey 104-102 Friday as a hefty 11-point chalk. Oklahoma City is outscoring foes by about six ppg on average at the Ford Center (101.0-95.4), where the team is 21-11 SU but just 17-15 ATS.
Utah has cashed in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), most recently losing on the road 87-86 on New Year’s Eve, but covering as a three-point underdog. The ‘dog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 matchups, and the road team is on a 6-2 ATS run.
The Jazz, with the league’s second-best ATS record, are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 34-14-3 overall, 16-4-2 in the West, 15-5-1 on the highway (12-3-1 last 16), 20-7-3 against winning teams, 11-4 after a day off, 21-6 after a SU loss and 19-7 after a non-cover. The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen Sunday tilts, but are otherwise on ATS upswings of 6-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 11-3 against winning teams and 37-16 after an ATS defeat.
Utah is on multiple “over” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 coming off a SU loss, 5-1 on the road, 13-3 against the Northwest Division and 4-1 in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-0-1 on Sunday, 8-1 after a SU win and 4-1 after a day off, but the under for the Thunder is on surges of 6-2 in division play and 7-3 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last 10 meetings overall and four of the last five in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
